By Hasan Legal Desk · December 22, 2025
The employment-based immigrant visa inventory report released as of October 2, 2025, provides a clear and revealing snapshot of how EB-1A (Extraordinary Ability) and EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) petitions are moving through the U.S. immigration system. While both categories remain highly sought after, the backlog realities could not be more different—particularly when country of birth is factored in. At a high level, EB-1A continues to operate as a largely current category for most of the world, meaning visa numbers are immediately available for the majority of applicants. EB-2 NIW, by contrast, shows severe congestion for Indian-born applicants and emerging pressure for others due to a recent surge in filings. The data below explains where each category stands, how many cases are pending, and what these figures realistically mean for green card timelines.
EB-1A: Strong Demand With Limited Backlogs
Global EB-1 Demand Remains High but Largely Current
The EB-1 category, including EB-1A extraordinary ability petitions, continues to attract heavy global demand. As of October 2025, approximately 28,000 EB-1 petitions are pending for petitioners born in countries classified as Rest of World (all countries other than India and China). Importantly, virtually all of these petitioners have visas immediately available.
The bulk of this pending inventory reflects recent filings, not backlog stagnation. More than 10,000 EB-1 cases carry 2024 priority dates, and an additional 13,500 cases were filed between January and September 2025. These numbers confirm a significant surge in EB-1A filings over the last two years. However, because the category remains current for these countries, these cases are moving forward based on processing times alone—not visa shortages.
For EB-1A petitioners outside India and China, this remains one of the most reliable and predictable immigration pathways.
China: Small and Manageable EB-1 Backlog
Petitioners born in China face a slightly different—but still favorable—EB-1A landscape. As of the October 2025 report, fewer than 400 Chinese EB-1 cases are awaiting visa availability. Most of these involve late-2022 priority dates, with approximately 362 cases still pending at that cutoff.
All earlier Chinese EB-1 cases already have visas available. This suggests that China’s EB-1 retrogression is limited in scope and duration, likely resulting in only a short delay of several months. Visa bulletin movement is expected to resolve this backlog relatively quickly.
India: EB-1A No Longer Current, but Backlog Is Contained
India presents the most significant EB-1A backlog among all countries, though it remains far smaller than what is seen in EB-2.
The report shows approximately 15,000 pending EB-1 petitions for India. Of those, about 10,800 cases have 2022 priority dates and are currently awaiting visa numbers due to the per-country cap. The data further reveals that hundreds of Indian EB-1 cases remain pending for each month of 2022, with December 2022 alone accounting for 2,297 cases awaiting visa availability.
That said, the situation is not uniformly bleak. All Indian EB-1 cases with priority dates from 2021 or earlier are current, totaling roughly 4,600 petitions that are actively being processed without visa delays.
In practical terms, this means EB-1A is no longer “immediately current” for India, but the backlog is measured in months to a couple of years, not decades. Given the moderate size of the queue, Indian EB-1A petitioners can reasonably expect approvals as visa numbers advance through 2022 priority dates in upcoming visa bulletins.
EB-2 NIW: Severe and Persistent Backlogs for India
India’s EB-2 NIW Backlog Reaches Historic Levels
The EB-2 NIW category presents the most extreme backlog in the employment-based system, particularly for Indian nationals. As of October 2025, there are approximately 43,000 pending EB-2 petitions for India, with the vast majority lacking visa availability.
The age of these cases highlights the depth of the problem. Indian EB-2 petitions with priority dates going back to 2010–2012 remain pending, and filings from 2013 and 2014 dominate the backlog. Those two years alone account for over 40,000 pending Indian EB-2 cases.
To put this into perspective:
Approximately 27,400 cases from 2014 remain unapproved.
September 2013 alone has over 1,300 pending cases.
November 2013 accounts for 1,284 cases still waiting for visas.
This means that Indian professionals who filed EB-2 NIW petitions more than a decade ago are still awaiting green card approval in 2025. Without legislative intervention or a significant increase in visa availability, wait times for Indian EB-2 NIW petitioners remain 11 years or longer.
Rest of World: Rising Demand, Limited Delay
Outside India, EB-2 NIW has historically moved quickly—but that dynamic has begun to shift. During 2021 and 2022, the EB-2 category for Rest of World countries remained current, encouraging a large volume of new filings.
The October 2025 data shows that 2023 priority date filings now make up a substantial portion of pending EB-2 NIW cases for Rest of World. Thousands of these cases remain in process, and this surge in demand led to worldwide EB-2 retrogression in late 2023, the first such event in several years.
Backlog Outside India Remains Modest
Despite the increase in filings, the EB-2 NIW backlog for non-India countries remains comparatively small. Across all Rest of World countries combined, there are approximately 15,000–16,000 pending EB-2 NIW cases.
Only a few hundred of these cases—approximately 480—are actually awaiting visa availability, primarily involving early 2024 priority dates. A small number of late-2023 cases are also affected. Importantly, most 2022 and 2023 filings still have visas available, meaning any delays are due to processing timelines rather than quota limitations.
This indicates a backlog measured in months, not years, and it is widely expected that new fiscal year allocations could return EB-2 Rest of World close to current status. For petitioners from Europe, Mexico, the Philippines, and similar countries, EB-2 NIW remains a viable and relatively fast option.
China: EB-2 NIW Backlog Is Minimal
China’s EB-2 NIW situation falls between India and Rest of World. The October 2025 report identifies only 26 Chinese EB-2 cases awaiting visa availability. While China’s EB-2 cutoff had retrogressed into 2022, the small number of pending cases suggests that movement forward is imminent.
Most Chinese EB-2 NIW petitioners with older priority dates have already been processed or have visas available. For current petitioners, expected delays are likely one to two years at most, far shorter than the waits faced by Indian nationals.
Conclusion and Forward Outlook
The October 2025 employment-based inventory report underscores a sharp contrast between EB-1A and EB-2 NIW outcomes.
EB-1A remains one of the most efficient immigration pathways available. While demand is high—evidenced by tens of thousands of pending petitions—visa availability remains strong for most countries. Even for India, where EB-1A is no longer current, the backlog is limited and advancing steadily.
EB-2 NIW tells a different story. For most of the world, the category remains workable despite a recent spike in demand. For Indian nationals, however, EB-2 NIW continues to represent the most severe bottleneck in the employment-based system, with decade-old cases still awaiting resolution.
These trends reinforce a critical takeaway: country of chargeability is often the single most important factor in green card timelines. Petitioners from non-backlogged countries continue to benefit from relatively swift processing, while those born in India must plan for significantly longer horizons—particularly in EB-2 NIW—and may need to explore alternative strategies such as EB-1 eligibility or category upgrades.
Monitoring inventory data and visa bulletin movement remains essential for setting realistic expectations and making informed immigration decisions.